The Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data
利用美国当前人口调查与失业保险工资记录数据，区分长期失业者表现更差的原因是个体异质性还是失业时长本身，发现失业时长对后续就业概率有显著负面影响。
That the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than do the short-term unemployed is well-known, but why? One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are “bad apples” who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that these bad outcomes are a consequence of their extended unemployment (state dependence). The authors use Current Population Survey data on unemployed individuals linked to unemployment insurance wage records for the same people to distinguish between these explanations. The rich work history information contained in the wage records allows the authors to control for individual heterogeneity that could affect post-unemployment labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, they find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. The results are robust to accounting for differences in the labor market conditions experienced by the long-term and short-term unemployed.