Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate
提出理论将美元汇率与外国投资者持有美国安全资产获得的便利收益联系起来，发现该收益可从美国国债与货币对冲的外国国债的收益率差中推断，且该利差扩大伴随美元先升值后贬值。
ABSTRACT We develop a theory that links the U.S. dollar's valuation in FX markets to the convenience yield that foreign investors derive from holding U.S. safe assets. We show that this convenience yield can be inferred from the Treasury basis, the yield gap between U.S. government and currency‐hedged foreign government bonds. Consistent with the theory, a widening of the basis coincides with an immediate appreciation and a subsequent depreciation of the dollar. Our results lend empirical support to models that impute a special role to the United States as the world's provider of safe assets and the dollar as the world's reserve currency.