Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach
比较法国和葡萄牙地方政府预算预测误差的性质与决定因素，发现选举动机和制度差异（如财政自主权）是主要驱动因素，对研究预算政治和财政纪律的学者有参考价值。
This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts by documenting and comparing their statistical properties. The results point at biased and inefficient budget forecasts, which seem to have been more cautious in French departments than in Portuguese municipalities. Second, we examine the political, institutional and economic determinants of forecast biases. Overall, we find that they are essentially driven by electoral motivations and by institutional differences across the two countries. In particular, opportunistic forecasting is more prevalent where governments enjoy greater margin of maneuver, and there is evidence of conservatism in French departments where fiscal autonomy is greater.