Competing Expectations in an Index-Based Livestock Insurance Project
研究了肯尼亚基于指数的牲畜保险试点中各方（保险公司、研究者、捐赠者、牧民等）的竞争性期望，发现早期需求与后续反弹源于客户对保险伙伴的庇护关系期望未实现，而非系统性的不当销售。
Despite donor enthusiasm for index-based microinsurance, globally, pilots have struggled to realise its promises. This paper considers the Kenyan Index-Based Livestock Insurance pilot, investigating the competing expectations held by actors including (re)insurers, researchers, donors, NGOs, and pastoralists. We explore expectations’ impacts on partner involvement, project outcomes, sales, and the future outlook for Kenyan livestock insurance. Quantitative analysis suggests early demand and subsequent backlash were not results of systematic mis-selling, but rather stemmed from clients’ unfulfilled expectations of patron-like relationships with insurance partners. We caution against exaggerated expectations of profitability and call for reflection and transparency amidst the embrace of insurance tools.