Rational bubbles and public debt policy: A quantitative analysis
研究发现，在理性预期下，符合美国数据的动态一般均衡模型可以存在泡沫和庞氏骗局，公共债务完全是一种庞氏骗局，消除私人资产泡沫并将非基本面价值全部注入公共债务可带来巨大福利收益，但偿还公共债务仅惠及少数富人。
Do empirically plausible dynastic general equilibrium models admit bubbles and Ponzi-schemes under rational expectations? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the answer is affirmative. The central assumption is that current securities do not represent claims to all future profits. Calibrating the model to U.S. data, we find that it is consistent with the presence of rational bubbles. The observed level of public debt is entirely a Ponzi-scheme. There are large welfare gains from eliminating bubbles on private assets and lodging all the non-fundamental asset value in public debt. Paying off public debt benefits only a small group of wealthy individuals.