Capital flows in the euro area and TARGET2 balances
通过面板VAR模型评估TARGET2系统对欧元区成员国经济冲击传导和总经济活动历史演变的影响，发现该系统显著缓解了外围困境国家的衰退深度。
We estimate a panel VAR model for the euro area to quantitatively asses the contribution of the TARGET2 system to the propagation of different types of structural economic shocks as well as to the historical evolution of aggregate economic activity in euro area member countries. Our results suggest that TARGET2 has significantly affected the transmission of capital ow shocks while leaving the macroeconomic responses to other aggregate shocks virtually unaltered. Furthermore, on basis of counterfactual analyses, we find that TARGET2 has contributed substantially to avoid deeper recessions in distressed periphery member countries like Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal, while to a smaller degree depressing aggregate economic activity in core member states, such as Germany, the Netherlands and Finland.