Quantifying Sentiment with News Media across Local Housing Markets
通过量化34个美国城市本地住房新闻的语调，构建了首个住房情绪指数，该指数对未来房价有显著预测能力，领先房价近两年，且对投机者多的市场影响更大。
This paper develops first measures of housing sentiment for 34 cities across the United States by quantifying the qualitative tone of local housing news. Housing media sentiment has significant predictive power for future house prices, leading prices by nearly two years. Consistent with theories of investor sentiment, the media sentiment index has a greater effect in markets in which speculative investors are more prevalent and demand appears less informed. Directly examining the content across news articles finds that results are not driven by news stories of unobserved fundamentals. Received October 21, 2015; editorial decision December 19, 2017 by Editor Robin Greenwood. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.