Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market
利用市场对未来价格的预期，扩展了两种泡沫检测方法，发现2003至2008年原油价格波动并非由投机泡沫引起。
Abstract The wide fluctuations of oil prices from 2003 to 2008 have attracted the interest of academics and policymakers. A popular view is that these fluctuations were caused by speculative bubbles due to the increased financialization of oil futures markets. This hypothesis, however, is difficult to examine since the fundamental price of oil is unobservable and, therefore, econometric evidence in favor of bubbles may actually be due to misspecified market fundamentals. In this paper, we extend two recently proposed methodologies for bubble detection that alleviate this problem by using market expectations of future prices. Both methodologies provide no evidence of speculative bubbles.