Melitz Meets Milk: The Impact of Quota Abolition onEUDairy Export Competitiveness
使用包含不完全竞争和异质性企业的全球可计算一般均衡模型，研究欧盟牛奶配额取消对乳制品出口竞争力的影响，发现不完全竞争模型预测的企业洗牌与实际观察一致。
Abstract Previous studies of EU milk quota abolition usually assume perfect competition ( PC ) in the dairy industry, despite evidence to the contrary. We use a global computable general equilibrium framework with an imperfectly competitive ( IC ) model variant, which offers insights into structural change (i.e. scale of output, firm entry/exit) and varietal diversity in the dairy industry. A heterogeneous‐firm Melitz extension enriches our analysis by endogenising the decision‐making process of domestic firms when exporting (or not) to specific foreign markets. The results from a PC CGE model variant are found to be consistent with respected market outlooks and official data. Furthermore, PC and IC variants generate broadly similar trends – a result corroborated in a previous study of Italian dairy firms. Our IC model prediction of a ‘shakeout’ among EU dairy firms is tentatively supported by actual observations. Finally, as an industry characterised by significant product innovation, increased extra‐ EU export orientation by remaining dairy firms increases varietal choice, which further boosts EU dairy exports compared with the PC model variant.