Fundamentals, speculation or macroeconomic conditions? Modelling and forecasting Arabica coffee prices
研究了基本面、投机和宏观经济条件对阿拉比卡咖啡价格变化的影响，发现全球宏观经济和金融变量能解释历史价格模式并提升预测准确性。
We analyse the role played by market fundamentals, speculation and macroeconomic conditions as empirical determinants of price changes in Arabica coffee. We combine model averaging techniques to explain historical patterns with an in-depth analysis of out-of-sample predictability of Arabica coffee prices using fundamentals as well as macroeconomic and financial variables. Our results indicate that variables related to global macroeconomic and financial developments contain valuable information to explain the historical pattern of coffee price developments, as well as to improve out-of-sample predictions.