We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers
分析了数据和模型选择如何影响财政乘数的大小，基于对欧洲国家超过两千万个财政乘数的估计，发现许多看似无害的建模选择会显著改变乘数估计的数值和精度。
Abstract We analyse the role played by data and specification choices as determinants of the size of the fiscal multipliers obtained using structural vector autoregressive models. The results, based on over twenty million fiscal multipliers estimated for European countries, indicate that many seemingly harmless modelling choices have a significant effect on the size and precision of fiscal multiplier estimates. In addition to the structural shock identification strategy, these modelling choices include the definition of spending and taxes, the national accounts system employed, the use of particular interest rates or inflation measures, or whether data are smoothed prior to estimation. The cumulative effects of such arguably innocuous methodological choices can lead to a change in the spending multipliers of as much as 0.4 points.