Spending Reversals and Fiscal Multipliers under an Interest Rate Peg
研究货币政策对通胀反应较弱时财政刺激是否更有效。实证发现美国被动货币政策时期政府支出增加后会出现支出削减；理论分析表明名义利率盯住不足以产生大财政乘数，支出逆转和货币政策反应不足可能导致长期实际利率上升，私人消费负向响应，乘数未必大于1。
Abstract This paper examines whether fiscal stimuli are more effective when the monetary policy is less responsive to inflation. First, we provide empirical evidence suggesting that, in the period of U.S. passive monetary policy, a positive government spending shock was followed over time by a spending cut. Second, our theoretical analysis reveals that the pegged nominal interest rate is not a sufficient condition to generate a large fiscal multiplier. An increase in government spending could increase the long‐run real interest rate, if it is associated with a government spending reversal and a less responsive monetary policy. Consequently, the response of private consumption can be negative and the government spending multiplier is not necessarily greater than 1.