The Impact of Positive Agricultural Income Shocks on Rural Chinese Households
利用1993年粮食收购价上调带来的收入冲击，发现收入增加导致农村家庭减少农业投资、增加非农经营和外出务工，表明信贷约束曾阻碍部分家庭从事非农生产。
Abstract In the post-collectivization period, rural Chinese households were required to sell part of their grain output to the state at a below-market price; however, increases in this quota price beginning in 1993 generated substantial positive income shocks. These income shocks also varied cross-sectionally in accordance with crop composition given that quotas were systematically larger for rice-producing households, generating a quasi-random source of variation in the size of the shock driven by climatic variation in suitability for rice cultivation. Households induced to experience relatively larger income shocks show evidence of decreased agricultural investment, increased investment in non-agricultural businesses, and increased migration as households gain increased income, consistent with the hypothesis that credit constraints may have constrained some households from entering non-agricultural production ex ante. In addition, there is evidence that these households were concentrated among households who had not previously diversified out of agriculture.