Testing the rationality of expectations of qualitative outcomes
提出一个统计量，用于检验在主观中位数或众数假设下对分类结果点预测的合理性，通过蒙特卡洛模拟显示其改进了第一类错误，并应用于家长和学生对学校成绩的预测数据。
Summary This article provides an adequate statistic for testing the rationality of point predictions of categorical outcomes under a subjective median or mode assumption. The test improves upon previous approaches by accounting for all the required moment inequalities and their respective covariance matrix in a single statistic. Monte Carlo simulations show that the test has an improved Type I error, especially in cases with multiple modes. Applying these tests to a dataset with parents' and students' predictions of school scores, I find that respondents are biased towards expecting higher grades and that students' expectations are correlated with the time of study.