What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited
研究22个OECD国家产出波动的决定因素，采用非平稳成分模型和贝叶斯选择方法，发现人口结构中壮年工人比例越高波动越低，而政府支出越大波动越高。
Abstract This paper studies the determinants of output volatility in a panel of 22 OECD countries. In contrast to the existing literature, we avoid ad hoc estimates of volatility based on rolling windows, and we account for possible non‐stationarity. Specifically, output volatility is modelled within an unobserved components model where the volatility series is the outcome of both macroeconomic determinants and a latent integrated process. A Bayesian model selection approach tests for the presence of the non‐stationary component. The results point to demographics and government size as important determinants of macroeconomic (in)stability. A larger share of prime‐age workers is associated with lower output volatility, while higher public expenditure increases volatility.