An Experiment on Time Preference and Misprediction in Unpleasant Tasks
通过7周实验，100名参与者选择不同工资下立即或未来完成不愉快任务的数量，发现即时满足偏好导致当前比未来少做10-12%任务，且参与者对自身偏误的认知不足24%，存在投射偏误。
We experimentally investigate the time-inconsistent taste for immediate gratification and future-preference misprediction. Across 7 weeks, 100 participants choose the number of unpleasant transcription tasks given various wages to complete immediately and at different future dates. Participants preferred 10–12% fewer tasks in the present compared to any future date, leading to an estimated $\beta $ of $0.83$. Comparing predictions with actual immediate-work choices provides evidence against substantial sophistication, with estimates implying that participants understand no more than 24% of their present bias. Finally, we find evidence of “projection bias”: participants wished to complete 4–12% fewer tasks when decisions were elicited right after completing tasks rather than before.