THE RETURN TO COLLEGE: SELECTION AND DROPOUT RISK
研究了大学毕业对终身收入的影响，通过构建包含不确定毕业的大学选择模型，利用成绩单数据揭示学生学分积累率的异质性，发现能力差异解释了59%的大学终身收入溢价。
Abstract This article studies the effect of graduating from college on lifetime earnings. We develop a quantitative model of college choice with uncertain graduation. Departing from much of the literature, we model in detail how students progress through college. This allows us to parameterize the model using transcript data . College transcripts reveal substantial and persistent heterogeneity in students' credit accumulation rates that are strongly related to graduation outcomes. From these data, the model infers a large ability gap between college graduates and high school graduates that accounts for 59% of the college lifetime earnings premium.