Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms, Spatial Market Integration, and Welfare: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Ethiopia
利用埃塞俄比亚1996-2013年300个地点的月度谷物价格数据，采用时间断点回归设计，研究发现燃料补贴改革显著增加了谷物价格的空间分散性，导致偏远地区的谷物净销售者和部分城市家庭福利受损。
Abstract In light of climate change and tight fiscal conditions after the 2008 crises, fuel subsidy reform has become a popular policy. The G20 leaders, in their Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania meeting in 2009, committed to phase out inefficient fuel subsidies. However, little is known about the implications of removing subsidies on food prices and welfare. I study the welfare effects of such reforms through their impacts on the spatial dispersion of food prices using a “natural experiment” from Ethiopia. I employ time‐regression discontinuity design using a highly disaggregated monthly grain price data (1996–2013) from 300 locations. I find the following: ( a ) the reform substantially increased grain price dispersion; ( b ) there are notable spatial heterogeneities in the treatment effect; ( c ) even if the reform has had no impact on overall price levels, it increased cross‐sectional spatial price differences; and ( d ) net‐sellers of grain in remote districts and some urban households experienced welfare losses.