Surprise election for Trump connections
利用特朗普非政治背景和意外当选，识别标普500企业中总统关联的突然价值，发现关联企业在选举后获得更高超额收益、更多政府合同和更少不利监管。
We exploit Donald Trump's nonpolitical background and surprise election victory to identify the value of sudden presidential ties among S&P 500 firms. In our setting firms did not choose to become politically connected, so we identify treatment effects comparatively free of selection bias prevalent in this literature. Firms with presidential ties enjoyed greater abnormal returns around the 2016 election. Since Trump's inauguration, connected firms had better performance, received more government contracts, and were less subject to unfavorable regulatory actions. We rule out a number of confounding factors, including industry designation, sensitivity to Republican platforms, campaign finance, and lobbying expenditures.