The Temporal and Spatial Differences of Developmental Level of Resource Conserving and Environment-Friendly Society in Dongting Lake Region
研究了2005-2012年洞庭湖区17个县资源节约与环境友好型社会的发展水平，发现经济和社会协调度上升但环境可持续性下降，预测2015年发展水平为中等。
Using evaluation model and artificial neural network model,the temporal and spatial differences of developmental level of RES were analyzed and forecasted. The results indicate that:(1) For the lake region as a whole,economic development degree and social coordination degree showed an upward trend with an average annual growth rate of 2.46 % and 4.46% from 2005 to 2012; while environmental sustainability degree declined fluctuantly with an average annual decrease of 0.74%. The developmental level of RES was increasing as a whole,while its internal coordination of economy,society and environment was poor at the same time.(2) As to spatial distribution,the rangeability of economic development degree and social coordination degree were a tendency of positive change in the17 counties of Dongting Lake area,the rangeability of environmental sustainability degree showed a negative change; in the urban areas of Yueyang,Changde and Yiyang development and harmonization degrees were higher than the other 14 counties,while environmental sustainability degree decreased most significantly. Compared 2005 with 2012,it showed that the developmental level of RES of 17 counties had a rising tendency,and the difference between counties changed obviously.(3) The prediction consequence indicates that developmental level of RES of 17 counties in 2015 will be medium level,and increase constantly in different change. It not only reflects the construction of RES in Dongting Lake area is healthy and fruitful,but also indicates that the contradiction between population,resources,environment and development is still not solved thoroughly,it will become the bstacle factor for sustainable development of RES. It is also proved that the BP neural network model can be used to forecast developmental level of RES,the application of the model is reliable and fessible,the forecasting results can provide a scientific basis for sustainable development.