Weather effects and their long-term impact on the distribution of agricultural yields: evidence from Italy
利用意大利七个省份1900-2014年小麦和玉米产量数据，通过分位数自回归模型发现天气对产量分布的影响不对称，对低尾影响更大且具有持续性。
This paper examines the effects of weather on the distribution of agricultural yields. Using data on wheat and corn yields from seven Italian provinces over the period 1900-2014, a quantile autoregression model is estimated to analyse the dynamic evolution of yield distributions. We find that weather effects are asymmetric, with much larger impacts on the lower tail of the yield distribution than the upper tail. The analysis also shows slow dynamic adjustments. This indicates that adverse weather has significant and persistent effects on agricultural productivity.