Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis
用一个包含政府债务危机风险的模型，解释了长期停滞和利率持续下降的驱动因素，发现对大规模资本税和资本错配的恐惧解释了日本过去二十年近一半的经济放缓。
Abstract In this study, we explain the driving forces behind the secular stagnation associated with a persistent decrease in interest rates by employing a model that incorporates a crisis risk triggered by government debt accumulation. The model shows that fear of large‐scale capital taxation and capital misallocation in future debt crises accounts for almost half the economic slowdown in Japan over the past two decades. Over the same period, the government bond yield declines, because a decrease in the expected returns on capital makes investing in government bonds more attractive than investing in capital.