How Do People Interpret Macroeconomic Shocks? Evidence from U.S. Survey Data
研究调查预期如何响应宏观经济冲击，发现受访者能区分菲利普斯曲线上的移动和曲线本身的移动，且利率预期调整与泰勒规则一致。对理解预期形成机制和货币政策传导有用。
Abstract We study the revision of survey expectations in response to macroeconomic shocks, which we identify in vector autoregressive models with sign restrictions. We find that survey respondents distinguish between movements along the Phillips curve and shifts of the Phillips curve, depending on the type of shock that hits the economy. In addition, interest rate expectations are revised broadly in line with a Taylor rule. Consistent with models of rational inattention, macroeconomic shocks account for a small share of the forecast error variance of survey measures elicited from consumers, while they are more relevant for the expectations of professional forecasters.