Business-Cycle Anatomy
提出一种分解宏观经济时间序列的新策略，识别商业周期的主要驱动因素，并排除技术冲击、生产率新闻和传统通胀需求冲击等候选因素，为需求驱动型周期模型提供支持。
We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role: technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shocks of the textbook type. Models aimed at accommodating demand-driven cycles without a strict reliance on nominal rigidity appear promising.