Is finance a veil? Lead‐and‐lag relationship between financial and business cycles: The case of China
利用中国省级数据，构建信贷/GDP比、房价和股价三个金融变量指标，通过面板动态logit模型发现金融周期领先商业周期，且领先效应在富裕省份更强。
Abstract This study examines the lead‐and‐lag relationship between financial cycles (FCs) and business cycles (BCs) by using Chinese provincial data. We construct FCs of the financial sector on the basis of three financial variables: credit‐to‐GDP (gross domestic product) ratios, house prices, and equity prices. We use the panel dynamic logit model to investigate the lead‐and‐lag effect between two sectors. Results show that each province has its own unique FCs and BCs. Hence, financial policies should be different in dissimilar provinces. Next, we find that FCs lead BCs and not vice versa. Furthermore, the leading effect is stronger in rich provinces than in poor areas.