Productivity Shocks and Repayment Behavior in Rural Credit Markets: A Framed Field Experiment
通过模拟投入信贷市场的重复互动实验，发现不利的生产率冲击即使不导致负收益也会显著提高违约率，且信息交换系统无法消除这一影响，表明气候变化等反复冲击可能加剧农村信贷市场失灵。
Improving rural credit markets requires a good understanding of the root causes of market failures and taking necessary steps to address them. This paper investigates the role of productivity shocks in borrowers repayment choices. Using a framed field experiment that simulated a repeated interaction in an input credit market, the analysis finds strong evidence that adverse productivity shocks lead to higher default, even when they do not induce negative returns. This relationship is robust to the presence of an information exchange system enforcing dynamic incentives. The findings suggest that recurrent shocks such as those resulting from the harmful effects of climate change could exacerbate failures in rural credit markets, undermining hard-won progress toward rural financial inclusion.