The Impact of Delay Announcements on Hospital Network Coordination and Waiting Times
结合实证观察和数值实验，研究延迟公告如何影响患者选择急诊服务，进而提升医院网络协调、缩短等待时间，并指出基于历史均值的延迟估计可能引发系统振荡。
We investigate the impact of delay announcements on the coordination within hospital networks using a combination of empirical observations and numerical experiments. We show that patients take delay information into account when choosing emergency service providers and that such information can help increase coordination in the network, leading to improvements in performance of the network, as measured by Emergency Department wait times. Our numerical results indicate that the level of coordination that can be achieved is limited by the patients ’ sensitivity to waiting, the load of the system, the heterogeneity among hospitals, and, importantly, the method hospital use to estimate delays. We show that delay estimators that are based on historical average may cause oscillation in the system and lead to higher average waiting times when patients are sensitive to delay. We provide empirical evidence which suggests that such oscillations occurs in hospital networks in the US.