Measuring the natural rate of interest: A note on transitory shocks
通过贝叶斯方法估计自然利率，发现其同时受永久性和暂时性冲击影响。暂时性冲击使美国自然利率中位数估计更顺周期，且大衰退后高于多数文献估计。
Summary We present evidence that the natural rate of interest is buffeted by both permanent and transitory shocks. We establish this result by estimating a benchmark model with Bayesian methods and loose priors on the unobserved drivers of the natural rate. When subject to transitory shocks, the median estimate for the US economy is more procyclical, displays a less marked secular decline, and is therefore higher following the Great Recession than most estimates in the literature.