The Consequences of Uncertainty: Climate Sensitivity and Economic Sensitivity to the Climate
构建了一个包含多种能源的综合评估模型，利用文献中的极端情景评估气候敏感性和经济敏感性，发现过度被动的气候政策是最大的政策失误，而过度激进的政策因能源替代性而损害较小。
We construct an integrated assessment model with multiple energy sources—two fossil fuels and green energy—and use it to evaluate ranges of plausible estimates for the climate sensitivity, as well as for the sensitivity of the economy to climate change. Rather than focusing explicitly on uncertainty, we look at extreme scenarios defined by the upper and lower limits given in available studies in the literature. We compare optimal policy with laissez faire, and we point out the possible policy errors that could arise. By far the largest policy error arises when the climate policy is overly passive; overly zealous climate policy (i.e., a high carbon tax applied when climate change and its negative impacts on the economy are very limited) does not hurt the economy much as there is considerable substitutability between fossil and nonfossil energy sources.