RETROSPECTIVE VOTING AND PARTY POLARIZATION
研究了回溯投票（根据政党实际表现投票）相比理性预期投票如何激励政党极化，并发现这种极化反而可能提高社会福利，因为政策与基本面更匹配。
Abstract We provide a new and favorable perspective on voter naiveté and party polarization. We contrast sophisticated (Nash) versus retrospective voting in a model where two parties commit to policies. Retrospective voters do not understand the mapping between states and outcomes induced by a policy; instead, they simply vote for the party that delivers the highest observed performance, as determined in equilibrium. We show that parties have an incentive to polarize under retrospective, compared to Nash, voting. Moreover, this polarization often results in higher welfare due to a better match between policies and fundamentals.