On the cost of misperception: General results and behavioral applications
研究在决策问题中,对收益相关参数的误解所导致的损失,并证明当个体能控制误差分布时,最小化误解损失的策略会出现系统性偏差,如控制幻觉、顺序效应等。
In a choice model, we characterize the loss induced by misperceptions of payoff-relevant parameters across a distribution of decision problems. When the agent cannot avoid misperceptions but has some control over the distribution of errors, we show that strategies that minimize loss from misperception exhibit systematic biases, akin to some documented in the behavioral and psychological literatures. We include illusion of control, order effect, overprecision, and overweighting of small probabilities as illustrative examples.