The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in US States and Metropolitan Areas*
研究了全球和国家冲击对美国各州及大都市区就业波动的相对重要性，发现两者合计解释了约三分之二（州）和一半（大都市区）的就业变化，且区域敏感性存在显著异质性。
Abstract The growth of globalization in recent decades has increased the importance of external factors as drivers of the business cycle in many countries. Globalization affects countries not just at the macro level but at the level of states and metro areas as well. This paper isolates the relative importance of global, national and region‐specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual US states and metro areas. We find about 2/3 and 1/2 of the employment fluctuations in US states and metro areas, respectively, are explained by the global and national shocks lumped together. The split between the importance of the global and national shocks is about 50:50, based on the standard identification scheme in the literature. Next, we document substantial regional heterogeneity in the sensitivity of states and metro areas to global shocks, and show that direct trade linkages are not the only channel through which the global business cycle impacts regional economies. In particular, indicators of size and industry composition dwarf the explanatory power of trade linkages in explaining the regional differences.