Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
研究个体和共识预测对宏观经济与金融变量的理性程度，发现个体预测者通常对新闻过度反应，而共识预测则反应不足，并用诊断性预期模型解释这一矛盾。
We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, while consensus forecasts under-react relative to full-information rational expectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information learning model. Structural estimation indicates that departures from Bayesian updating in the form of diagnostic overreaction capture important variation in forecast biases across different series, yielding a belief distortion parameter similar to estimates obtained in other settings.