How Long Is a Spell of Unemployment? Illusions and Biases in the Use of CPS Data
指出当前人口调查（CPS）数据因时点抽样特性，无法完整反映失业持续期分布。作者用面板数据构建完整失业样本，模拟CPS抽样方法，发现基于CPS类数据推断的失业持续期分布存在严重偏差。
Most data used to study the durations of unemployment spells come from the Current Population Survey, which is a point-in-time survey and gives an incomplete picture of the underlying duration distribution. We introduce a new sample of completed unemployment spells obtained from panel data and apply CPS sampling and reporting techniques to replicate the type of data used by other researchers. Predicted duration distributions derived from this CPS-like data are then compared to the actual distribution. We conclude that the best inferences that can be made about unemployment durations using CPS-like data are seriously biased.