The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival
基于健康与退休研究的面板数据，分析主观生存概率如何随新信息变化，并验证其对实际死亡率的预测能力。
Although expectations, or more precisely subjective probability distributions, play a prominent role in models of decision making under uncertainty, we have had very little data on them. Based on panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. In panel, respondents modify their survival probabilities in response to new information such as the onset of a new disease condition. Subjective survival probabilities predict actual survival: those who survived in the panel reported survival probabilities approximately 50% greater at baseline than those who died. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002