The Effect of Analysts' Disaggregated Forecasts on Investors and Managers: Evidence Using Pre-Tax Forecasts
研究了分析师税收预测对投资者和公司行为的影响，发现投资者会利用税前和税后盈利预测，且税收预测覆盖促使公司增加税收披露。
ABSTRACT I examine whether analysts' tax forecasts are informative to investors and whether analysts' tax forecasts impact firm behavior. Using I/B/E/S data from 2002–2014, I find that investors utilize both analysts' pre- and after-tax earnings forecasts in evaluating firm performance, indicating analysts' tax forecasts are value-relevant. Furthermore, evidence that investors discount earnings management through the income tax expense is limited to firms with tax forecast coverage. In examining the impact of analysts' tax forecasts on firm behavior, I find analysts' tax forecast coverage is positively associated with quantitative and qualitative tax footnote disclosure. The results suggest that analysts' tax forecasts are value-relevant and that analysts' tax coverage impacts firm decisions related to the income tax expense account. This evidence informs academics and practitioners as to the role of analysts' tax forecasts.