How Does The US Government Finance Fiscal Shocks?
提出一种识别和量化财政渠道的方法，用于分析政府支出冲击的融资方式。研究发现，战后时期美国政府约9%的意外支出通过债务市场价值下降融资，超过70%通过增加基本盈余融资。
We develop a method for identifying and quantifying the fiscal channels that help finance government spending shocks. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending and show that they are more precisely identified when defense stock data are used in addition to aggregate macroeconomic data. Our results show that in the postwar period, about 9 percent of the US government's unanticipated spending needs were financed by a reduction in the market value of debt and more than 70 percent by an increase in primary surpluses. Additionally, we find that long-term debt is more effective at absorbing fiscal risk than short-term debt.