The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience
用增长核算方法分析香港、新加坡、韩国和台湾战后增长，发现要素积累（而非全要素生产率增长）是主要驱动力，其全要素生产率增速与OECD和拉美经济体相当。
This paper documents the fundamental role played by factor accumulation in explaining the extraordinary postwar growth of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Participation rates, educational levels, and (excepting Hong Kong) investment rates have risen rapidly in all four economies. In addition, in most cases there has been a large intersectoral transfer of labor into manufacturing, which has helped fuel growth in that sector. Once one accounts for the dramatic rise in factor inputs, one arrives at estimated total factor productivity growth rates that are closely approximated by the historical performance of many of the OECD and Latin American economies. While the growth of output and manufacturing exports in the newly industrializing countries of East Asia is virtually unprecedented, the growth of total factor productivity in these economies is not.