Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of Chinese Shipbuilding
提出一个基于模型的实证策略，用于检测政府补贴的存在和规模，并量化其对全球生产再分配、行业价格、成本和消费者剩余的影响，以中国造船业为例发现补贴导致成本降低13%-20%，并引发显著的生产转移。
This article provides a model-based empirical strategy to, (1) detect the presence and gauge the magnitude of government subsidies and (2) quantify their impact on production reallocation across countries, industry prices, costs and consumer surplus. I construct and estimate an industry model that allows for dynamic agents in both demand and supply and apply my strategy to world shipbuilding, a classic target of industrial policy. I find strong evidence consistent with China having intervened and reducing shipyard costs by $13$–$20\%$, corresponding to $1.5$ to $4.5$ billion US dollars, between 2006 and 2012. The subsidies led to substantial reallocation of ship production across the world, with Japan, in particular, losing significant market share. They also misaligned costs and production, while leading to minor surplus gains for shippers.