Crime, Urban Flight, and the Consequences for Cities
分析城市犯罪率上升与人口外流的关系，发现每增加一起报告犯罪，城市人口约减少一人，且高学历和有孩子的家庭对犯罪更敏感。
This paper analyzes the link between rising city crime rates and urban flight. Each additional reported crime is associated with a roughly one-person decline in city population. Almost all of the crime-related population decline is attributable to increased out-migration rather than a decrease in new arrivals. Households that leave the city because of crime are much more likely to remain within the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) than those that leave the city for other reasons. Migration decisions of highly educated households and those with children are particularly responsive to changes in crime. Causality appears to run from rising crime rates to city depopulation. © 1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology