Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies
研究预算赤字导致政府债务现值无界时，公众对未来政策调整的预期如何影响当前经济，特别是赤字与通胀的关系，发现时机不确定性可能引发与赤字看似无关的通胀波动。
Budget deficits implying an unbounded present value of government debt are infeasible and, hence, induce expectations of a future policy change. The authors study how expectations of a policy switch, whose timing or mix between expenditure cuts, tax increases, or increases in money growth rates may be uncertain, affect economic dynamics before the switch takes place. They are especially concerned with the correlation between changes in the deficit and inflation. Of particular interest is their finding that timing uncertainty may induce fluctuations in the rate of inflation that seem to be unrelated to the budget deficit, at a time when the budget deficit is responsible for inflation. Copyright 1990 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.