The Impact of Young Workers on the Aggregate Labor Market
研究发现,一个地区年轻人口占比上升会降低该地区相对失业率并小幅提高劳动参与率,这与许多理论不符,但可用带在职搜寻的摩擦性失业模型解释,且工资数据支持该模型。
An increase in the share of youth in the working age population of one state or region relative to the rest of the United States causes a sharp reduction in that state's relative unemployment rate and a modest increase in its labor force participation rate. This is inconsistent with many theories of the labor market, but can be easily explained by a model of frictional unemployment with on-the-job search. The theory makes strong predictions regarding the behavior of wages which are shown to be consistent with the data. The paper also reconciles its findings with an existing body of apparently contradictory empirical evidence. # I have received helpful comments from Daron Acemoglu, Olivier Blanchard, Andrew Caplin, Henry Farber, Christopher Foote, Edward Glaeser, Bo Honore, Lawrence Katz, Alan Krueger, Christina Paxson, Harvey Rosen, Robert Topel, two anonymous referees, and many seminar participants. Thanks to Susan Gorel for providing me with cross-state unemployment and partic...