Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century
认为二十世纪股市的大幅波动并非源于非理性潮流，而是投资者对未来长期增长率的预期变化所致，并证明分析师对基本面的评估与十年间市场波动高度吻合。
The bull and bear markets of this century have suggested that large stock market swings reflect irrational “fads and fashions.” We argue instead that investors perceived shifts in the long-run rate of future growth and that stock prices are sufficiently sensitive to expectations about the future that these perceived shifts plausibly generated the swings of the twentieth century. We document that analysts often viewed as “smart money” assessed fundamentals, based on their perceptions of future economic growth, in a way that tracked decade-to-decade swings closely.