A GLOBAL VIEW OF CROSS-BORDER MIGRATION
用一个多部门世界经济的量化模型，评估了当前移民水平对全球福利的影响，发现接收国和汇款流入大国福利提升约5-10%。
This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative\nmulti-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data.\nOur framework features cross-country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances,\nand a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels of\nmigration to a no-migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that received\na lot of migration -such as Canada or Australia- are better o due to greater product variety\navailable in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run the impact of migration\non average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled natives\ntend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries with\nlarge emigration flows -such as Jamaica or El Salvador- are also better off due to migration,\nbut for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration is\nsubstantial, at about 5 to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries with\nlarge incoming remittances. Our results are robust to accounting for imperfect transferability\nof skills, selection into migration, and imperfect substitution between natives and immigrants.