HOUSING DYNAMICS OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE
研究发现住房开工量领先GDP，但住宅投资仅在美国和加拿大领先；引入长期名义抵押贷款和名义利率过程后，模型能解释住房开工量的领先现象。
Housing construction, measured by housing starts, leads GDP in a number of countries. Measured as residential investment, the lead is observed only in the United States and Canada; elsewhere, residential investment is coincident. Variants of existing theory, however, predict housing construction lagging GDP. In all countries in the sample, nominal interest rates are low ahead of GDP peaks. Introducing long‐term nominal mortgages, and an estimated process for nominal interest rates, into a standard model aligns the theory with observations on starts, as mortgages transmit nominal rates into real housing costs. Longer time to build makes residential investment cyclically coincident.