Working Paper Review: A Regional Economic Forecasting Procedure Applied to Texas
提出一种构建区域经济时间序列多变量自回归预测模型的简单方法，该方法类似向量自回归模型，但变量选择和关系估计更依赖假设检验而非先验知识。
In this paper economist James G. Hoehn proposes and implements a relatively simple method for building a multivariate autoregressive forecasting model for regional economic time series. The method used is a time series approach requiring little a priori or theoretical knowledge, as in the building of structural econometric models. In this way, the method is similar to the so-called vector autoregression (VAR) models of Anderson and Kuprianov and Lupoletti. However, the way variables are chosen to be included and the way relationships are estimated involve more hypothesis tests and less prior knowledge.