Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy
提出期限利差预测未来经济活动的因果机制，源于金融中介的资产负债表管理和货币政策的冒险渠道，实证支持了该渠道的存在。
Abstract One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real activity. We propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of the term spread, deriving from the balance sheet management of financial intermediaries and the “risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.” Monetary tightening leads to the flattening of the term spread, reducing net interest margin and credit supply. We provide empirical support for the risk‐taking channel.