GLOBAL BUSINESS CYCLES: CONVERGENCE OR DECOUPLING?*
利用动态因子模型分析1960-2008年全球周期相互依存度的演变，发现工业国和新兴市场内部周期趋同，但两组之间脱钩，全球因素重要性下降。
We analyze the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960–2008. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in output, consumption, and investment into a global factor, factors specific to country groups, and country‐specific factors. We find that during 1985–2008, there is some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among industrial economies and among emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there is a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. We conclude that there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.