MEASURING POVERTY CYCLES IN THE U.S. 1959–2013
使用Harding和Pagan以及Cardinale和Taylor模型，分离出美国1959-2013年的贫困周期，检验其持续时间依赖性和与商业周期的同步性，发现贫困周期在不同贫困率指标下表现不同，且更持久、更波动的贫困周期对家庭影响更大，对政策制定者有重要启示。
This paper aims to shed light on the nature of poverty as a dynamic process by examining poverty cycles, their magnitudes, and their asymmetry. The designated benchmark country is the USA due to the availability of time series data making comprehensive analyses possible. We use Harding and Pagan (2002) and the Cardinale and Taylor (2009) model to isolate poverty cycles in the U.S. during 1959–2013. Once isolated, we test the poverty cycles for duration dependency, and their synchronization with the U.S. business cycles observed over the same period. We find that poverty dynamics measured through poverty cycles differ for alternative poverty rate indicators. Another critical point is the magnitude of change in the poverty cycles. Prolonged and more volatile poverty cycles have a significant adverse impact on people and families facing them. That is particularly important for policymakers who should rethink poverty policy guidelines aimed at helping people with more volatile poverty cycles first. Our is the first study, to our knowledge, to isolate poverty cycles and focus on their nature. Poverty cycles should attract more attention from policymakers since they more accurately assess nations’ economic well-being than output (GDP).