Political Cycles in OECD Economies
研究选举和政府更替是否影响GNP增长、失业和通胀的动态行为，基于18个OECD经济体过去三十年的数据，发现政治商业周期假说被拒绝，但通胀在选举后上升，且党派差异对通胀有长期影响。
This paper studies whether the dynamic behavior of GNP growth, unemployment, and inflation is affected by elections and changes of governments. The sample includes the last three decades in eighteen OECD economies. The authors' results are as follows: (1) the "political business cycle" hypothesis on output and employment is rejected; (2) inflation tends to increase immediately after elections; (3) they find evidence of temporary partisan differences in output and unemployment and of long-run partisan differences in the inflation rate; and (4) they find virtually no evidence of permanent partisan differences in output growth and unemployment. Copyright 1992 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.